Quick answer

A replica Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Extra-Thin copies the 39 mm Jumbo case of reference 15202ST or 16202ST. The genuine watch is 8.1 mm thick and holds a caliber 2121 or 7121. Most replicas measure 8.5 mm to 9.5 mm, run a Miyota 9015 or a decorated Chinese automatic, and sell for $300 to $800. Case diameter and case thickness are the first two numbers to check.

The watch replicas copy

Audemars Piguet released the Royal Oak in 1972. Reference 5402ST was 39 mm wide and 7.0 mm thick. Gérald Genta drew the case. The eight-sided bezel holds eight hex screws. The dial carries the Petite Tapisserie grid.

In 2012 AP marked the 40th year with reference 15202ST. Case: 39 mm. Thickness: 8.1 mm. Movement: caliber 2121, a 3.05 mm automatic with 36 jewels, 21,600 vph, and about 40 hours of power reserve. The dial has two hands. There is no seconds hand.

Reference 16202ST arrived in 2022 with caliber 7121. The 7121 measures 4.05 mm thick and runs about 55 hours. The 39 mm case and 8.1 mm thickness carry over from the older reference.

What replica versions change

Replica makers match the outside shape. The inside does not follow.

  • Case thickness: 8.5 mm to 9.5 mm in most cases. Genuine is 8.1 mm. A caliper settles this in seconds.
  • Movement: Miyota 9015 base, or a Chinese automatic with plated bridges and an engraved rotor. No 2121 or 7121 clone exists at volume.
  • Hands: some replicas add a seconds hand. The 15202ST and 16202ST have two hands only.
  • Date window: font, aperture cut, and disc color differ. Steel 15202ST uses a white date disc at 3 o'clock.
  • Bracelet: link count, taper, and clasp engraving depth vary by maker. Measure the bracelet at the case and at the clasp.
  • Bezel screws: slot alignment and hex depth. Genuine screws sit flush and take a specific tool.
  • Dial grid: square count per sector and depth of the Tapisserie cuts.

Price facts

Steel 15202ST sells on the secondary market at $60,000 and higher. Published retail for the 16202ST in steel sits above $30,000, and AP boutique lists run long. Replica listings sit between $300 and $800. Some sellers ask $1,200 or more for the same product. Factory names on replica forums change each year, so treat any name as a label, not a standard.

Legal status in the US

Counterfeit watches are illegal to import and sell in the United States. 19 U.S.C. § 1526 lets US Customs seize and destroy shipments. The Lanham Act gives Audemars Piguet civil claims against sellers. Personal use carries lower risk than resale. The item stays subject to seizure at the border in both cases.

Checklist

  1. Ask for a caliper photo of the case flank.
  2. Ask which movement is inside. Request a photo of the rotor and the balance wheel.
  3. Count the hands. Two hands, no sweep.
  4. Check clasp engraving depth and the bezel screw slots.
  5. Compare seller photos to AP catalog images of the same reference.
  6. Confirm the return policy in writing before payment.

Bottom line

The 8.1 mm case and the two-hand dial define the Extra-Thin. A replica that measures 9 mm has already failed one of the two. Buyers who want the real movement buy the real watch. Buyers who want the look buy a replica and accept the gap. Unknown items: exact production numbers for replica factories and the alloy used in replica cases. Sellers do not publish either.